Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
